Rounding Up: Economic impact of lockdowns; Death at the Wing

A few things that caught my eye recently:

*Economist/Bloomberg columnist Noah Smith delved into the economic impact of lockdowns during the Covid-19 era, a subject that might be important in the future. (Full disclosure: I worked with Noah to lead the communications arm of TestandTrace.com – the public interest project he discusses at the opening of the essay – and agree with his assessment of why testing and contact tracing never really gained traction as a strategy for curbing the spread of the coronavirus.) Noah demonstrates that fear of the virus dampened economic activity, not the social-distancing policies enacted to mitigate the spread of Covid-19. Consequently, countries that implemented more stringent lockdown measures appeared to lessen the economic devastation of the virus by suppressing its spread. When they reopened their economies, the public had greater confidence that they could do so without triggering a new wave of infections.

Seems like a lesson worth remembering the next time policymakers are grappling with a global pandemic – or perhaps a few months from now.

*On a related note, from Derek Thompson of The Atlantic:

Weeks ago, Gov. Abbott made Texas the first state to abolish its mask mandate and lift capacity constraints for all businesses.

So, what changed?

Nothing. There was ~no effect on COVID cases, employment, mobility, or retail foot traffic, in either liberal or conservative areas. pic.twitter.com/M8aeKOKJuP

— Derek Thompson (@DKThomp) May 17, 2021

My first takeaway is that this will be great for reinforcing everyone’s priors. My second is that we’re probably underestimating how much people will need to feel safe before we get back to something approximating life as we used to know it. We may not snap back just by lifting the restrictions and mitigation strategies of the last year.

*One last Covid-related note. COVID-19 Data Dispatch published a helpful article laying out the evidence in support of the CDC’s new mask guidance. I wrote last week about how the new guidance may help encourage uptake of the vaccine.

*I plowed through Adam McKay’s podcast series “Death at the Wing” over the weekend. McKay uses the untimely deaths of basketball stars like Len Bias and Drazen Petrovic as launching points to explore the cultural themes that defined the 1980s and 1990s. The production is solid, and McKay just has a knack for dramatizing compelling true-life stories that double as allegory. The fifth episode on mental health is is particularly strong.